Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXUS61 KRLX 031659
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1159 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry today and cold courtesy of high pressure. Rain
returns with a cold front Wednesday night, followed by snow
Thursday. Next weekend looks unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 830 AM Tuesday...

Increased PoPs across the southern and eastern portions of the
area to account for ongoing light snow/flurries from ongoing
cold air advection. Also bumped up clouds some more to reflect
current conditions more. Otherwise everything else appears to be
on track.

As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Cold air advection has ushered in a bit more cloud coverage than
previously anticipated, so opted to freshen up the sky forecast
this morning to highlight more broken to overcast skies across
the forecast area. Still held onto the notion that high pressure
will gradually chip away at clouds from west to east this
afternoon into the evening. Also cleaned up temperatures to
continue reflecting the latest observations.

As of 105 AM Tuesday...

Light snow showers continue to be observed on radar early this
morning across parts of southwestern Virginia as a clipper
system vacates to the south. This should wrap up fairly quickly
in the next few hours as the disturbance rounds the parent upper
level trough and streams off the eastern seaboard.

Generally quiet weather then triumphs through the rest of today
courtesy of high pressure. Morning low temperatures will be
dictated in similar fashion to yesterday, where the
establishment of clouds during the predawn hours will keep
locations a few degrees warmer than in areas where radiational
cooling under clear skies transpires. Mountain zones will tumble
down into the single digits/low teens while the lower elevations
start off the day near the 20 degree mark. Clouds will likely
hover along the spine of the mountains this afternoon,
minimizing full daytime heating and yielding highs today only in
the upper teens/20s. Elsewhere, we should see a slight warm up
compared to Monday, rising to the above freezing mark during
peak heating hours.

The orientation of the aforementioned upper trough nudges
eastward by late in the day, inviting an uptick in low to mid
level winds overnight into Wednesday morning out of the
southwest. This will gradually encourage stronger surface
breezes heading into midweek. Temperatures tonight will once
again bottom out in the single digits/teens in the higher
elevations and the upper teens/low 20s across the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

Starting this period high pressure will be fleeting off to
the east allowing a clipper system to interact with the region
by Wednesday night. This system will slide through from
northwest to southeast and provide plenty of snow for the
mountains. Half an inch up to 3 inches in localized spots is
possible across the lowlands with up to 5-6 inches in the
mountains with locally higher amounts on the windward side of
the northeast mountains due to upslope enhancement up to 7-8
inches in very localized spots. This will last across the
lowlands until Thursday evening at which point upslope snow will
continue across the mountains. These additional accumulations
are already enveloped in the total 5-6 inches and will likely
last through Friday morning. The upslope snow should have lower
rates by Friday which will be showery and light until the
moisture gets cut off by late Friday morning and ends anymore
snowfall.

One hazard with this event will be strong winds along the
mountains with even stronger winds across the peaks and ridges.
An advisory or warning will likely be needed, but after
collaboration with neighboring offices, we will hold off on
issuance of anything until the day shift comes in and gets more
data to analyze what headlines we want to issue. The high winds
will cause blowing snow across the peaks and ridges with up to
50mph, possibly slightly more. This will cause low visibility
and blowing snow which could act like blizzard conditons for
short bursts and maybe even some snow squalls with the
snow squall parameter hinting of some potential activity for
this event.

Another hazard besides snow itself will be wind chills which
will be near advisory criteria as well with wind chills as low
as possibly -12 degrees in the northeast mountains on Thursday.
This is another aspect the day shift will have to analyze in
case we have to issue more headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1157 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

  * Upslope mountain snow will be ending Friday.

  * Afterwards, becoming dry into Saturday.

  * Cold on Friday and Friday night.

  * Warming trend will start this weekend.

  * Chances for rain Sunday and higher chances on Monday into
    Tuesday with cold front.

On Friday, the area will be under strong NW flow behind a strong
cold front with high pressure squeezing in from our SW. Left chances
for early morning upslope snow showers across the higher elevations
of the northeastern WV mountains, with a few light accumulations
less than an inch possible.

Winds will be continuing to lessen as a pressure gradient aloft
moves off to the east, but the NW flow gradient will be present
enough to keep gusts up to 20 MPH or 30 MPH until afternoon across
the the higher terrain. Cold weather headlines may be possible
Friday morning across the usual NW Pocahontas/SE Randolph higher
elevations zones with temperatures projected to be in the upper
single digits and lower 10s. This paired with active wind could make
for wind chills in the negative teens for some locations.

Outside of the higher elevations, Friday will showcase a very cold
and brisk start, with skies clearing and mostly dry conditions
thanks to the entrance of high pressure. Winds will slack off
through the day, but high temperatures will be around freezing
across the lowlands with teens and 20s expected in the mountains.

Dry weather lasts from Friday night into Saturday, but more chances
for snow and some rain may arrive by Saturday afternoon through
Sunday with an upper-level disturbance ahead of a warm front. Not
highly confident that this system will be impactful or conducive to
accumulating snow.

Warm up also looks to occur on Saturday and Sunday with the lowlands
finally seeing some 40s and 50s on the board for temperatures thanks
to a crossing warm front.

The system arrives Monday in the form of a cold front. Models are
showing likely to definite PoPs Monday through Tuesday, but not
willing to keep high precipitation chances this far out. Did lower
percentages some, but kept the broadbrush coverage as this system
looks wet. Warming trend will also be continuing Monday and Tuesday
with highs in the lowlands looking to be in the 50s, with 40s in the
mountains. Some of the typical warm spots across the lowlands
could see temperatures around 60 degrees on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Low to mid level clouds continue to blanket the area this
morning in the wake of a vacating clipper system. While the bulk
of our TAF sites have remained VFR this morning, pockets of MVFR
have entered into BKW occasionally. This trend will propel into
the early afternoon before high pressure regains enough control
to diminish cloud cover from west to east, wrapping up along
the mountains by this evening. Quiet weather will be fleeting by
the conclusion of the TAF period, as the next disturbance looms
for midweek. Winds remain generally light out of the west
during this period. However, will make note that a strengthening
low level pressure gradient will ensue shortly after the
conclusion of the valid TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief moments of MVFR ceilings could arise
near EKN and BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EST 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in snow showers Wednesday night for EKN and CKB,
and area-wide for Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...28/MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK