Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

761
FXUS61 KRLX 172342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
742 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and trending warmer for the end of the work week.
Next system brings rain/storms Saturday/Sunday. Another system
forecast for Monday, keeping rain and storms in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...

Did introduce a slight chance of POPs for the Tug Fork and
Huntington Tri-State portions of the CWA over the next couple of
hours, in the event that a few light showers reach into the CWA.
However, overall it appears that the area of light precip is
likely to gradually lose steam and have trouble reaching the
ground as it pushes further into the dry air of the surface high
that controlled our weather today. Otherwise, no appreciable
changes were made to the forecast.


As of 159 PM Thursday...

High pressure slides east of the Mid Atlantic coast, while a cold
front approaches form the west tonight. Pressure gradient tightens
up as the front gets closer, providing southwest gusty winds. This
will lift a warm front, that could bring some light precipitation
along and west of the OH River this evening. The latest NBM run
brings dry conditions even over SE OH. Otherwise, the area will
remain dry through late Friday.

Despite of models showing H850 winds at 50 knots under warm or
neutral temperature advection, believe some of these winds could be
mix down to surface especially along the higher terrain. Expect
gusty winds 15 to 20 knots across the lowlands, and up to 30 knots
across the higher elevations Friday.

Under an increasingly southwest flow, WAA will keep tonight`s
temperatures into the lower 50s across the lowlands, ranging into
the lower 40s northeast mountains. Strong WAA and plenty of sunshine
will provide warmer afternoon temperatures reaching the mid 80s
across portions of the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Warm frontal boundary will have pushed through our area by early
Saturday and associated low will be near the lower Great Lakes
before sliding northeastward through the day, this will promote some
gusty southwest winds of 30-40 mph area wide, with some strong gusts
possible across the mountains. It does appear at this time that we
will be very much removed from the better forcing dynamics with this
system as the frontal boundary begins to stall northwest of our CWA
which will significantly hinder storm coverage for our area
Saturday. In addition, debris from the preceding nights
showers/storms will filter into the area Saturday morning along with
a chance for continued precipitation but it appears this will likely
be weakening and limited in coverage as well.

SPC currently highlights areas along and west of the Ohio River in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday, namely for any
storm clusters that could be capable of primarily damaging winds.
Instability is very limited for most of our area, especially with
eastward extent, but given modest instability forecast within the
marginal area, potential for lingering outflow boundaries, and
closer proximity to the frontal boundary, it wouldn`t be impossible
for a few storms to develop in this area Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night, but CAMs suggest that coverage will be limited. The
aforementioned frontal boundary will then stall over our forecast
area Sunday before lifting northward as a warm front again Sunday
afternoon ahead of a developing southern stream system lifting out
of the Southern Plains. It is possible that some of the storms that
occur Sunday night into Monday could be strong/severe, depending on
the frontal timing and instability present, as models still diverge
somewhat on when the cold front will finally push through our area.

Temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be quite warm, with
Saturday`s highs in the low to mid 80`s for the lowlands, upper 60`s
to low 70`s in the northeast mountains and Sunday`s in the mid 70`s
to low 80`s with temperatures a tad cooler across the northern
quarter of our area and in the mountains in the upper 60`s to low
70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Showers/storms will be likely at the onset of the long term with
aforementioned systems cold front pushing east across our area. As
mentioned, it is possible some of these storms could be strong, but
there is still uncertainty in regards to both moisture return/instability
as well as frontal timing which could potentially limit strong
storm development. Precipitation should end across our area
sometime Tuesday from west-east, but a few CAA showers are not
out of the question Tuesday afternoon.

Otherwise, expect dry weather until Wednesday night/Thursday as
some energy surges northward into southern portions of our CWA
Wednesday night, bringing additional chances for rain before
another low amplitude wave of energy approaches from the
northwest Thursday allowing for a more widespread chance at
measurable precipitation, with an active pattern ahead but
solutions disagree on timing/location this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period, as
dry air and some developing S`ly winds later tonight should
preclude any fog formation. A few showers may work in from the
west and affect HTS in the first few hours of the TAF period,
but no impacts to flight categories are anticipated. Gusty winds
develop tomorrow late morning through the end of the TAF period,
with peak gusts of 20-25kts common across the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible in heavier showers or
storms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/FK/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...FK