Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS61 KRLX 180521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1221 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Briefly warmer early Saturday ahead of a cold front that moves
through late Saturday. Rain changes to snow on Sunday.
Dangerous cold temperatures for the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 920 PM Friday...

Minor tweaks made to hourly temperatures to better represent
surface observation trends. Otherwise, rest of forecast remains
on track.

As of 410 PM Friday...

Sunny skies allowed some mixing this afternoon taking dewpoints
into the lower 20s and upper teens across the area. Adjusted
dewpoints down to better match surface observations. This update
lowered relative humidity into the 40s for this afternoon.
Expect a comfortable evening with seasonal afternoon temperatures
dropping into the mid to upper 30s across the lowlands, ranging
into the mid 20s higher elevations. Rest of forecast remains on
track.

As of 1245 PM Friday...

Upper ridge will slowly move off to the east later this evening in
advance of an approaching system. Deep southwesterly flow will take
hold across the area, ushering in enough warm air that the bulk of
precipitation should fall in the form of rain, although periods of a
wintry mix are expected across the mountains, and perhaps a brief
stint across parts of the lowlands, before enough warm air can take
hold for a change over to mainly rain or a rain/snow mix. A cold
front will sweep across the area Saturday afternoon into evening,
with colder air, and a change over to snow expected. Light
accumulations may be possible during this period, although a better
chance is in the short term period, as much of the moisture will be
lost with passage of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Key Points:

 * Rain changes over to snow late Saturday night into the end of
   the weekend.

 * Confidence is increasing for accumulating snow totals ranging
   from 4 to 7 inches across the northeast West Virginia
   mountains.

 * Uncertainty still remains on the storm`s track and how
   accumulations will be impacted for the southern mountains and
   lower elevations.

A disturbance first introduced in the near term period will
continue to churn moderate to heavy precipitation for the area
late Saturday night. An invasion of cold temperatures from the
northwest will yield a transition from rain/freezing rain to all
snow throughout the overnight period, becoming an all snow event
for Sunday. While some global models are proposing an uptick in
QPF and snow accumulations, there still remains uncertainty in
regards to the track of the storm. Any shift to this system
could heighten or stifle overall accumulations on Sunday, so
have opted to hold off on winter headlines for the lower
elevations with this issuance. If the 00Z model suite tonight
holds on to this increased trend, there could be need for at
least an advisory with the next forecast cycle.

Confidence is higher along the northeast West Virginia
mountains, especially as northwesterly flow insinuates an
upslope component to snow showers, where accumulations greater
than 5 to 6 inches will occur. With coordination amongst
neighboring forecast office, a Winter Storm Watch was hoisted
for portions of our northeast zones, highlighting this
potential for accumulating snow in addition to strong winds on
the upwards of 40 miles per hour. Snow will gradually wrap up
along the higher terrain overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

Looming to our northwest, an Arctic blast of very cold air will
be on the verge of encroaching the Central Appalachians. More
details can be found below in the long term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Key Points:

 * Extremely Cold Weather expected from Monday morning through
   Wednesday/Thursday. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as
   minus 10 to minus 15 degrees in the lower elevations and as
   low as minus 25 to minus 30 along the higher terrain.

 * Extreme caution should be exercised during this long exposure
   of cold weather. Now is the time to protect exposed
   infrastructure and ensure proper protection against the cold
   when spending any time outdoors.

 * Periodic chances for mountain snow showers throughout the
   week.

The major headline with the upcoming work week will be the
dangerously cold temperatures that will triumph over the Ohio
Valley and Central Appalachians. Arctic high pressure plunging
down from Canada infiltrates the region overnight Sunday into
Monday, promoting the first overnight period where anticipated
low temperatures and wind chills drop below zero degrees
areawide. While this airmass is in place, very little help from
daytime heating will take place, yielding cold weather to
prevail well through the extended forecast period both diurnally
and nocturnally. There is high confidence that these
excessively cold temperatures could cause harm to residents and
infrastructure within the forecast area.

It is imperative to ensure the messaging for this extended
period of cold weather reaches as many people as possible over
the next several days. With that in mind, opted to jump on board
with neighboring offices to issue an Extreme Cold Watch for the
entire area beginning on Monday morning and continuing through
midweek into Thursday. Zones were created within the headline to
highlight the timeframe in which to exercise extreme caution
against the dangerous cold, especially along the higher terrain,
where wind chills bottoming out to near -30F could be observed
from Monday and surpassing the lowlands in regards to longevity,
placing them the longest within the Watch until Thursday
morning.

Key impacts that could arise during the first half of the work
week includes infrastructure and health concerns. Frostbite can
occur in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin while outdoors
in addition for heightened potential for hypothermia in these
dangerous conditions. There will be strong potential of rivers
and creeks freezing over within this cold regime, which could
impact local water systems that pull from them. Unprotected
pipes can freeze and burst. To prevent ruptured water pipes from
freezing, wrap, drain, or allow them to drip slowly. Dress in
warm layers whenever faced with the cold exposure. Extreme care
is also encouraged for the protection of pets and livestock.

A warming trend is not set to ensue until Thursday once the
Arctic high pressure shifts off to the east. This opens the
gates for a southern stream disturbance to sail across the
Tennessee Valleys, and yield potential for a return to active
weather for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions will continue to prevail until at
least 09/10Z Saturday morning for the western terminals before
MVFR ceilings and visibilities begin creeping in as the
precipitation shield begins to overspread the area. The rest of
the TAF sites should follow suit by around 14Z-15Z.

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are possible in the heaviest
rain showers and will likely persist late into the TAF period as
rain begins transitioning to snow across the forecast area by
Saturday night. It seems likely that all terminals will
experience at least some periods of IFR/LIFR conditions sometime
after 18Z Saturday before conditions slowly improve Sunday
morning.

Winds could be gusty at times Saturday across any sites where
the continued warm advection and rain showers mix down some
elevated winds to the surface at times, especially at BKW and
EKN. Some low level wind shear is also possible across the
western TAF sites (PKB, HTS, CRW) as low level jet stretches
overhead these areas leading to some increased wind speeds and
turning with height through early Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset and persistence of MVFR/IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibility Saturday may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 01/18/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Areas of IFR in rain/snow possible Saturday evening, and in
snow Saturday night into Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
     morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-
     521-524-525.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday morning
     for WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
     Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Thursday
     morning for WVZ520-522-523-526.
OH...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
     morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
     morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
     morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...28/ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...28